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能源安全一直是西方国家能源政策的主要目标,近年来也成为我国能源战略乃至国家安全战略的重点。本文全面综述了能源安全的定义、内涵、传导机制以及评价研究视角,梳理出能源安全评价的研究框架,并对指标加权构建标准化指数、计算中断概率、构造多样化指数间接刻画风险、衡量(期望)福利损失四种评价方法进行了述评。最后,对构建能源安全评价模型和实证研究我国能源安全存在的问题和面临的风险给出建议。
Abstract：Energy security is the main goal of energy policies in western countries all the time.In recent years,it has become the focus of Chinese energy development strategies and national security strategies.This paper reviewed the definition,implication,transmission mechanism and the evaluation perspective of energy security,analyzed the research framework on energy security evaluation,and commented four methods of energy security evaluation,which is building normalized index with weighting indicators,calculating the probability of energy interrupt,describing indirect risks with diversity indices,and measuring the(expected) welfare loss.Finally,the paper proposed some suggestions for constructing energy security evaluation model and empirically researching on the existed problems and potential risks of China's energy security.
[1]数据来源:BP世界能源统计2011。
[2]数据来源:中国能源统计年鉴2011和中国环境统计年鉴2011。
[3]参看Loschel,Moslener&Rubbelke(editors)(2010),“Energy Security:Concepts and Indicators with Regular Papers”,Energy Policy4:1607-2074.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.14167/j.zjss.2012.04.003
中图分类号:F224;F426.2
引用信息:
[1]苏铭,张有生.能源安全评价研究述评[J].浙江社会科学,2012,No.188(04):126-132+160.DOI:10.14167/j.zjss.2012.04.003.
基金信息:
2011年度国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院基本课题研究项目的阶段性成果
2012-04-15
2012-04-15