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传统的货币数量论认为价格水平主要由货币政策决定。但自20世纪90年以来,价格水平的财政决定理论(FTPL)引起了人们对价格决定的重新思考。该理论强调财政政策对于价格水平的影响。如果财政盈余与政府的名义债务是独立的,价格水平由财政政策决定,这种财政制度称为非李嘉图制度;如果价格水平仍由货币政策决定,财政盈余对政府的名义债务做出调整以确保预算约束成立,此为李嘉图制度。本文结合FTPL理论的推论,利用向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数对冲击的外生性假定和不同变量顺序下得到的脉冲响应所蕴含的不同经济学前提,对中国1979～2005年的数据进行了实证检验,发现李嘉图制度更符合中国实际,物价水平仍然是由货币当局决定,但财政政策对价格也有一定影响。
Abstract：Price is determined by monetary policy in traditional monetarists’ view. However, since 1990s, the fiscal theory of price level (FTPL) arouses us to think about price determination from a very different aspect. FTPL suggests that if primary surpluses are independent of nominal government debt, a unique equilibrium price level is pinned down by the government’s budget constraint so as to assure fiscal solvency. In this non-Ricardian regime, fiscal policy determines price level. Alternatively, in a Ricardian regime, primary surpluses are expected to respond to nominal debt, and then the price level is determined by monetary policy. With the implications of FTPL and some special characters of VAR econometric model, we explore the data of China from 1979 to 2005, and find that Ricardian regime is more consistent with the case of China, i.e., the price level is still mainly determined by monetary policy, but fiscal policy has an effect on it.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.14167/j.zjss.2008.01.019
中图分类号:F726
引用信息:
[1]万晓莉,傅雄广.中国的一般物价水平由财政政策决定吗?——对FTPL理论的实证检验[J].浙江社会科学,2008,No.137(01):37-47+126.DOI:10.14167/j.zjss.2008.01.019.
基金信息:
“2007国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目”资助的成果
2008-01-15
2008-01-15